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Our website is currently dedicated to coverage of the Coronavirus outbreak. At this moment we are only covering Europe, but we might extend our coverage to outside Europe in the near-future! We will also be adding more exclusive analysis and charts soon!

The Newsnodes.com team

 LATEST COUNTRY UPDATES

TimeCountrySource
28 Mar,11:54 Spainlink
28 Mar,11:50 Estonialink
28 Mar,11:49 Bulgarialink
28 Mar,11:36 Armenialink
28 Mar,11:31 Belgiumlink
28 Mar,11:30 Croatialink
28 Mar,11:29 Germanylink
28 Mar,10:03 Austrialink
28 Mar,10:02 Polandlink
28 Mar,09:59 Lithuanialink
The times as mentioned in the above table are in Central European Time (CET)

 UPDATE: New chart added

March 21th 2020

Many people want to know how their country is doing compared to Italy. Because a lot of European countries are no longer testing mild cases, looking to the total amount of cases is probably not the best way anymore to compare the COVID-19 outbreak in different countries.

To prevent the comparison to be skewed because one country is doing less COVID-tests (or simply not able to detect most mild cases), we recommend comparing the number of deaths. You can do this now on our website, as we have just added this chart. Example: The Netherlands.





 ANALYSIS: Comparing hospital demand in Europe

March 19th 2020

Back in February, when the Coronavirus was starting to spread in Europe, health authorities in Europe and the United States were stating they have the best medical institutions and that there was no reason to panic as the mortality rate of the Coronavirus was not very high. Already back then, I pointed out that we should not take things for granted:
- COVID did not have a high fatality rate in Asia, but in places where hospitals were overcrowded (e.g. in Wuhan) the fatality rates were way higher. (See also, this publication in medical journal The Lancet.


- China was able to send in around 40000 medical specialists from all over the country to Hubei province to relieve the health care system in the epicenter, while enforcing strict lockdowns on its population. If they wouldn't have, the fatality rate would have been higher as well. Europe will not have those numbers of medical forces.
- There is a limited amount of Intensive Care Units and ECMO-machines. Once these are all in use, then almost every critical case will end up as a fatality.

Because of the above, and the news reports that hospitals in Italy are already overwhelmed, I decided to compare the people currently on intensive care with the intensive care capacity a country has:



The above chart gives an indication in where we are standing at this moment. It shows the current amount of COVID patients per European country both in current numbers (white text) as in a percentage of total available intensive care units in this country. Note: The X-axis only ranges to 50%, but this is also a decent estimate for the percentage of ICU already in use for non-COVID patients.
by G. Hoeberigs


 UPDATE: New charts added

March 18th 2020

Today we have added some new charts on each country page. This also includes a chart in which you can compare the development of total confirmed cases of a country with the numbers of South Korea and Italy. We will soon be adding more charts, enjoy!




 ANALYSIS: Comparing confirmed cases in South Korea and Europe

March 10th 2020

Today I came up with an idea to use existing data in a new way, and I'll start with my findings right away: European countries are not detecting the vast majority of COVID-19 cases. The actual amount of cases in Europe is likely 3 to 7 times higher. I'll explain why I think so.

What I did is calculate the current ratios for South Korea, Italy, France and Spain, in three categories:
1) Confirmed cases (=people infected with COVID-19) / people on intensive care
2) People on intensive care with COVID / people who died due to COVID
3) Confirmed cases / COVID deaths



When visualizing the data in a 3D radar chart, it's easy to notice how the South Korean ratios which includes the amount of confirmed cases is way off, compared to Italy, France and Spain. The ratio of COVID-19 patients on intensive care/deaths is similar in all countries though.



Now, it's quite easy to detect COVID-19 persons who have died or are on intensive care and submit them to a labtest.

It's much harder however to detect all mild COVID-19 cases.

This too implies the reported number of deaths and ICU are more likely to be correct than the number of cases.

Finally, both data and logics point me to one and the same observation. To get the same ratios as South Korea (assuming the virus is the same in Europe and Korea), the number of confirmed cases in Italy, Spain, France have to be THREE to SEVEN times higher than currently reported.


For the record, there is a very logical explanation why South Korea has a high number of confirmed cases compared to Southern Europe.

They test A LOT. They have drive-in/drive-through screening centers where you get diagnosed without leaving your car and get the result by text message.



In total S. Korea tested 191692 people as of March 10. The effect of their huge testing system is also found by studying the breakdown to age of confirmed COVID-19 cases. Compared to China, Korea has way more confirmed cases among young persons, which are more likely mild cases.
by G. Hoeberigs



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